Sunday, July 12, 2009

10 Predictions for 2009

1) The stock market decline will accelerate in 2009, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipping below 6,000. Extreme volatility will engulf the markets with plenty of counter-trend rallies that will be fueled by speculators “calling the bottom,” only to find a new bottom the following month.
2) Unemployment will rise dramatically as “official” statistics reach towards 10% and true unemployment rises closer to 20%.
3) Real estate prices will continue to drop as rates reset and foreclosures increase across the country. Commercial real estate will finally follow residential, as price declines accelerate due to foreclosures on shopping malls, retail outlets, office buildings, etc.
4) Bailouts will continue, with more industries lining up for government rescue packages and both the financial and auto industries returning to the trough for more of their fix. This will lead to prediction #5.
5) Deflation will subdue and the first signs of hyperinflation will appear in the back half of 2009 as the trillions in bailout dollars begin to flow into the economy. The price declines that are a result of liquidation and de-leveraging, will give way to skyrocketing prices as politicians continue trying to print and borrow our way out of bad times. This will lead to prediction #6.
6) The dollar will resume its downtrend and make new lows during the first half of 2009. This will continue throughout the year with the dollar reaching into the low 60’s as the world loses confidence in the U.S. currency and the U.S. government’s ability to repay its debt.
7) Oil will rise from current lows and find a “fair price” somewhere in the $75 – $100 range, where it will float for much of the year. This will benefit alternative energy companies, although any gains will be muted by credit contraction and the overall market decline.
Agriculture prices will return to an uptrend as declining investment and unpredictable weather patterns lead to supply shortages amidst an ever-expanding population and increase in inflation.
9) Gold will make a new all-time (nominal) high reaching a price of $1,400 or more during 2009. A panicked flight to safety could push gold towards $2,000, although the central banks will dump gold on the market or make other attempts at suppressing the price advance.
10) All of the above will lead to increased crime and civil unrest with protests in the streets, bank runs and an increased police and military presence trying to bring stability to cities.

Sekadar ingin berkongsi, walaupun prediction ini dah lama. Cuba lihat item no.9, adakah ia akan menjadi kenyataan. Sama2lah kita tunggu&lihat. Sambil2 tunggu tu, kumpullah seberapa mampu "logamkaya" ini sementara harga masih murah. Percayalah walaupun prediction ini tidak menjadi kenyataan, "logamkaya" tidak menghampakan kita semua. Insyallah..Marilah kita sama2 doakan..

Sekian, TK.

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